Pattern Recognition

An ex-adman tries to make sense of PR. By Jon Leach, Head of Planning, Bell Pottinger Group

Recent Posts

  • The Mathematics of Word of Mouth Campaigns
  • Bleeding edge ideas
  • Chime : a "Viking" Business Culture?
  • Creative Projects - Forever in Beta
  • Distributed decision making and mastering contested markets
  • Things we learned at Playful 2009
  • The Mathematics of Creativity : The Book
  • Mobile Marketing and Engagement : What a PR Guy Thinks
  • A Visual History of Western SubCultures in the Twentieth Century
  • The Mathematics of Creativity : handling dangerous ideas

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Big in Korea? Bigger than William Gibson?

Welcome to my Korean reader.

It turns out that if you google "pattern recognition" on Korean Google, then the second listing after the cyber-punk author is this blog. This is not true if you do it in English (bubbling under at #45, pop-pickers)

What does this mean?  Will I be able to give longevity to a stalling career in PR by playing sell out gigs in Korea in years to come.

While on the Gibson thing i read his new novel on holiday.  I'd recommend it. Very "current" with all its themes.  Apart from the Cuban thing (but then maybe he knows somthing we don't)

09/17/2007 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

The end of blogging and the next big thing

In honour of the start of the football season, and the rising chants of "you're not singing any more" etc. rising from the terraces/executive-boxes-with-wireless-connectivity-for-media-bloggers, a quick word on why it has all gone quiet down the patternrecognition end.

Actually to speed things up read Huw's post here - he's got most of it.  Add in a lot of holidays and you've got the whole thing.

In the meanwhile, if you've come here for wisdom, insight and zeitgeist-pulse-taking then may I suggest that  William Gibson seemed to have figured out this whole Digital PR thing at least 5 years ago, so go retro and do what I'm doing at the moment and re-read the original Pattern Recognition novel ("novel" = big flappy, papery thing with stories but no links).  It's all in there.

And given his ability to get ahead of the game (check out Neuromancer etc from the 90's), I will be reading his August 2007 book on holiday and shamelessly ripping it off upon my return, as it is sure to contain the next big thing.

08/13/2007 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

The Mathematics of Creativity

I''ve teamed up with a "book buddy" - a strange hybrid between a "book club"  and a "fuck buddy" where the idea is that you occasionally meet up to fondle each other's manuscripts because you can't be arsed to find someone to do it with on a more committed basis.

My working title for her book is {sorry : removed after second meeting - she want's to keep it confidential for now}

Anyhow, the idea is that we each commit to do a certain amount of writing between meetings so here is my "homework" :   a rough outline for the book.

The content of the first chapter i put on my blog previously

http://patternrecognition.typepad.com/pattern_recognition_/2007/04/the_formula_for.html.

The Mathematics of Creativity :

how to beat the odds and deliver great ideas.

In which we propose to stop treating “creativity” as a magical and unknowable force but instead consider the statistical basis for how creative magicians “do it” (whether consciously or not) and thereby learn how to increase the odds of doing it ourselves.

This book takes a dozen or so different perspectives on “the creative process” and finds the simple maths that justifies what often appears irrational or counter-intuitive.  Using no more than GCSE maths the book seeks to “prove” to the logical mind that the creative mind is not that crazy after all.

Each chapter will include examples from the advertising and design industries as well as broader creative phenomenon such as song writer duos and fashion designers.

  1. The Equation for Good and Bad Meetings

In which we explore, through a simple piece of algebra, the statistical value of diversity and stimulation in creative meetings, and calculate the negative effect of fear in the boardroom. 

  1. The Quantity Theory of Creativity

In which we compare the logical thinkers’ habit of generating three options with the creative thinkers habit of generating 20 or more.  We use the normal distribution (the Bell Curve) to explore the statistical advantages of quantity.

  1. The Statistical Advantage of Error

In which we explore the survival benefits of making mistakes and explore the way mutant ideas increase the chances of companies flourishing.

  1. Operating in the Chaotic Zone

In which we explore the difference between companies who like to play it safe and companies who dare to play out at the extremes. We use a mathematical model of a football league competition to understand who wins over the long term.

  1. A Random Walk on the

    Creative

    Mountain

In which we explore the evolutionary advantages of diversity and “wild leaps” by quantifying the success of different populations of ideas spread across a 3 dimensional mathematical mountain.

  1. Clipping Off the Tail to Spite your Face

In which we explore the dangers of means, medians and modes and in particular the perils of statistical surveys in killing marginal (but valuable) ideas.

  1. Crossing the

    Suspension Bridge

    of

    Disbelief

In which we explore the effects that negative and optimistic responses to ideas have on their ability to do their job : reach out to new, valuable economic spaces.  We explore how extreme positivity can create “gravity defying bridges” to new pastures.

  1. Lost in translation

In which we explore the perils of imitation and calculate the decline in economic returns that will result.

  1. How discourse beats triscourse

In which we analyse the creative power of the duo and contrast its mathematical characteristics with solo working or working in larger groups.

  1. The Prisoners Dilemma and the Hard but Fair client

Where we consider the strategies available to the clients who buy work from creative people and via the mathematical model of the Prisoner’s Dilemma we discuss the virtue of “forgiving tit for tat”.

  1. The Non-Coincidental Creativity of the Well Fed Mind

In which we model the mathematical phenomenon of an idea occurring and note the two pre-conditions for this occurring (with reference to the mathematical disproof of ley lines)

  1. From Zero to Infinity.

In which we discover the paradox that great creativity flourishes in conditions of either almost zero pressure or almost total pressure (but flounders in between).

  1. Good Creativity Should Not be Left to Chance

In which we conclude that creativity is not a random or ill-disciplined craft, or indeed one that only the truly gifted can hope to work.  Rather we find that a series or techniques, processes, attitudes and cultures – all of whom can be acessed by anyone – can increase the chances of great ideas being delivered.

Other possible chapters : The Bible and the Power Law Distribution of Good Ideas.  How the Persistence Genius Braves the Long Odds of Discovery.

07/06/2007 | Permalink | Comments (11) | TrackBack (0)

The perfect presentation

Apologies Googlers if you have arrived here looking for quick tips and nifty templates.  All you will find here is the finest presentation I have ever seen - unfortunately on video (In fact inside this twenty minute clip are probably the three finest presentations I have seen).

It also features the best ever ending (one I will not be stealing)

Enjoy.  And don't miss the end.

07/03/2007 | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Pilsner Urquell vs Ian Dury (away win)

As Steve Martin put it "some people have a way with words and some people not have way".

So there I was on a conference, idly contemplating the positioning of Pilsner Urquell (one of my clients) when I started re-writing the Lords Prayer as a homage to this legenday lager (an idea stolen from Ian Dury's "The Bus Drivers Prayer")

"Hey this word smithing thing is a doddle!", I smugly thought.

On returning to the grid I found the original from the master of the rhythm stick. (I return to the day job, duly chastened)

The Lager Prayer

Our Father, who art from Plsen,
Urquell be thy name.
Your King does come,
Your round be done,
In pubs as it is in kitchens.


Give us this day our daily beer.
And forgive us our spillages,
as we forgive those who spill beer against us.
And lead us not into single decoction,
but deliver us our Pilsner.


For thine is the kingdom,

the power of the brewery.

For lager for ever. Amen

And now the original (with “way”)

The Bus Driver’s Prayer

Our Father

Who are in Hendon

Harrow Road
be thy name

Thy

Kingston

come

Thy

Wimbledon

In Erith as it is in Hendon

Give us this day our Berkhampstead

And forgive us our Westminsters

As we forgive us who

Westminster

against us

Lead us not into

Temple

Station

And deliver us from Ealing

For thine is the Kingdom

The Purley and the

Crawley

For Iver and Iver

Crouch End.

07/02/2007 | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

The Molecular CV - how to present a portfolio career

I've been so busy doing it (or reading books about it) recently that I have lost the habit of writing about work, PR planning etc in this blog.  Paraphrasing Terry Wogan's old joke, I apologise to my reader.

But inspired by John Grant's wonderful book and his "brand molecule" idea  I thought I'd offer the "Molecular CV" up to the world, shamelessly stolen from his crystal maze of a mind. Forgive me if this is all rather self-centred but attached is a Download molecular_cv_for_jon_leach.ppt  of my "career" arranged as a Grant-esque brand molecule rather than a list.

Perhaps other people with "portfolio careers" may find an organic molecule a useful way of depicting themselves. In drawing, rather than listing, my Curriculum Vitae (literally "list of life") it seems to avoid a few problems of the standard version :

  • having to present your life as one clear logical flow where each step builds on the previous (when life isn't like that, nor does is capture what makes you "interesting")
  • having to arrive at a point where you are doing just one thing (not only is that just not true of portfolio workers but part of their value is their multiplicity)
  • not being able to put new, incomplete ventures, aspirations and "work in progress" projects on your list (when these may be exactly the sort of thing that are of interest to potential partners, employers etc.)

Clearly there is a touch of the "mind map" in all this.  But as John seems to point out, the world is less interested in hazy ideas, values, features and all the soup that surrounds brand onions.  Coming up with your own "brand essence" really would be solipsistic!  So this is less of a mind map and more of a factual account of real events, outcomes and stuff people (can) talk about.

However, I'm not sure if the world is quite ready for "CV 2.0".  I sketched this idea out a few weeks ago and only wrote it up as the organisers of  the WARC conference I'm speaking at in June wanted a CV.  I sent the above picture off to them, only to receive this by reply :

"Thanks Jon, different!
I don't suppose you've got a word version have you, only we have a normal format that gets printed into the conference booklet?
Kind regards
Clare"
My old mentor Steve Henry taught me to ask "first is it different, then is it better".  So I think I'll stick to my guns, inspired by the awesome opening line of Steve's CV which, from memory, stated :
"Steve Henry was born in Hong Kong in the middle of a typhoon"

05/21/2007 | Permalink | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)

The Formula for Creative Meetings

Do your creative meetings multiply, or are they divisive?  Are you the lowest common denominator in a brainstorm or the highest common factor when a breakthrough occurs? 

One day I will address all of this and more in a pamphlet provisionally entitled The Mathematics of Creativity.

Maybe.

But having just spent 13 hours being hosed down by PowerPoint while floating along on the soothing corporate speak of a Management Consultant-led brand workshop, I was inspired to bring some maths to the eternal question of “why are some meetings so crap” (or “poorly leveraged interventions” in consultant speak).

Actually this one wasn’t crap, it was a good, productive sharing of information and initial opinions.

But it was not very creative.

And to be scrupulously fair, maybe at this point in the “Process” it wasn’t meant to be.

Anyway what follows is a complete lift from Doug Hall of the Jump Start Your  Brain series of books, but with live data. Doug, being a trained Chemical Engineer, a P&G-er and a very creative facilitator, shares my interest in trying to identify the underlying formulae of the creative alchemy. 

So his formula for the creative output of any meeting (whether workshop, brainstorm, board meeting, tetchy conversation with spouse etc.) is as follows:

C = (DxS)/F

Where :

C = quality of creative output (note “quality”, not “quantity”)

D = diversity of people in the meeting

S = amount of stimulation experienced by people in the meeting

F = fear level of people in the meeting

Now my particular beef is not the normal agency whinge that management consultants don’t understand creativity (darling), but more a worry that they don’t seem to know how to push for high levels of creativity in meetings. For them a meeting is a meeting and is run like all meetings. I think creative agencies could teach them a trick or two.

But now is not the time to go all creative and fluffy, but to illustrate my point with some hard numbers.

To simplify things, let’s say that each of Doug’s variables of Diversity, Stimulation and Fear can have three settings low, normal or good. And let’s quantify that on a three point scale of 1, 2 and 3.  Now, with those numbers, a superficial understanding of the creative dynamic might say that a good meeting is just 50% (3/2) more productive than an average meeting.

But applying Doug’s formula, the meeting I experienced was creatively “average” in three distinct ways and, as I shall mathematically show in a moment, fell well short of its creative potential.

On the diversity front, we had people from 7 different markets, some management consultants, some HQ marketing types, a couple of guys from the agencies (including me).  But really it was “a bunch of beer guys in blue shirts”.  Not a lot of functional or cultural variety. Just a normal meeting. I’ll give it 2 for Diversity.

Similarly, they all brought in good informative presentations about their markets, the consultants shared some interesting stuff from other markets.  But again nothing from the broader world; nothing about (say) the political and cultural journey of South Africa; nothing about the mass-affluent consumer in the States.  Again, normal beer stuff. So, again, 2 for stimulation.

On fear, the meeting was reasonably well run, the senior people “behaved”.  But we were sat around a ghastly oval shape 20 person board room table.  Actually it was the board room of the plc. The top person sat in the dominant position all the time.  And with the exception of a one hour break-out session, all conversations were done in the full glare of the whole group.  Normal business practice perhaps, but again I couldn’t give it a 3 for getting the fear levels right down.  So it is a 2.

Running the numbers, Jeff’s formula says that the meeting rates (creatively) as follows :

C = 2 X 2 / 2 = 2

Now this is 6 times better than the worst possible meeting…

C = 1 X 1 / 3 = 0.33

… but if we had been bolder about the diversity of the group, more imaginative with the stimulation provided and more active in reducing fear levels we might have achieved the following:

C = 3 X 3 /1 = 9

So the formula suggests that a well-run creative meeting is not just 50% more productive than an average meeting but 350% or 4.5 times more productive.

This is something the Management Consultants might point to as a “capability” of creative organisations.

But this could just be the maths talking.

(watch out for future installations of The Mathematics of Creativity including such topics as “The Quantity Theory of Creativity”, “Operating on the Edge of Chaos” and "The Statistical Advantage of Errors".  All suggestions welcome.)

04/04/2007 | Permalink | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)

WebMapping and the FTSE 100

My old colleague Antony Mayfield who now works at SpannerWorks has, rather inevitably, launched a rival service to our own WebMapping service.

They say they are targeting the FTSE 100 and I think they will do well there. Good luck to them, in any case.

I expected our first clients to be "challenger brands" looking for a way to steal a march on the market leaders.  But what happened was proper Blue Chip clients from the upper echelons of the FTSE 100 were/are the early adopters in this market.

This may because we at Bell Pottinger have some very Blue Chip clients in general but I think that there are a number of other reasons why the FTSE 100 is buying WebMaps so eagerly.

1.  They have people who think they are specifically responsible for all this.  Either the Head of Comms or Head of PR feels they need to know about on-line conversations.  Smaller companies may be aware of the issue but not have someone who has it towards the top of their agenda.

2.  They have the money.  Related to the above, Heads of Comms seem to have a pot of money available for this area whereas shoe-string based start-ups may not.

3.  They have more to lose.  Although no one is panicking, the big boys know that the world might be changing and they feel they need to keep a watch on this part of their empire. Although no one has put it quite like this perhaps the main reason the Blue Bloods need our maps is because "we hear the customer is revolting these days, do tell us where"

Liberty. Equality. Fraternity. Tres blogosphere, mais oui?

03/27/2007 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

How to be creative : be very

Saw this at whistlethroughyourcomb who in turn found it at scamp who is that rare thing - a blogging creative.

Quick aside - I think it was the waspish Adliterate that suggested that the reason that only the planners blogged is because the creatives have already expressed themselves and the account people have nothing to say. Prove him wrong, I say.

Anyhow - I will be using the creative brilliance of "be very" the next time I am training clients or management consultants on "how to be creative".  Maybe they need to loosen up a bit and "be very".

The other thing this phrase reminds me of is that very "be very" agency HHCL whose innovations have been catalogued here.  Perhaps the reason HHCL collapsed was it's whole raison d'etre was to "be very".  At some point it started being "quite" and the game was up.

Why did it start being "quite"?

Well being part of a plc forces you to deliver 15% compound.  We used to think that was hard work.  Maybe the problem was that it was just quite demanding.  We should have set goals that were very demanding (but that's hard to do in a plc that wants smooth profit increases)

Or maybe it was a second/third generation thing?  Both at a management level (having a "quite" strategy not a "very" strategy) or at a staff level (producing work that was quite-hhcl but not very-hhcl) it was hard to keep the intensity up. But all this is easy to say in retrospect. And - full disclosure - I was part of that management team.

Quite.

Final thought : as ever it takes a creative to do in two words what even a group of planners could only do in a thousand.

So, be very.

03/20/2007 | Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)

Is Web 2.0 a Puzzle or a Mystery?

I was reading a great piece by Malcolm Gladwell - we are not worthy - over here at the New Yorker where he manages to pull together the Enron trial, the hunt for Osama Bin Laden, cancer diagnosis, the hunt for Nazi super weapons, Watergate and more besides into one enquiry.

His key distinction is between puzzles and mysteries.  Puzzles - like where is Osama? - have clear solutions, where new data (e.g. "he's in Slough") help narrow down the search until you find the single answer ("the male grooming section in Superdrug").

Mysteries - like how come Iraq went wrong? - are less clear, may never be solved (perhaps they can only be better understood) and sometimes more data (anyone fancy a quantitative survey of the various conflicting groups to help move things on?) can often make the mystery deeper.

He hints that some people are particularly good at solving mysteries. As one of his sources puts it when referring to improving the USA's intelligence capability "we needed fewer spies and more slightly batty geniuses".

I think this is what planners are : slightly batty geniuses.

I'm getting the t-shirts done.

Rambling side query : are planners rubbish at Cryptic Crossword and Sudoku? I for one, have always been rubbish at these (and Chess, come to that) despite having a brain trained by the finest institutions that this country can provide.  And if a crossword isn't "Pattern Recognition" then what is?!  What's going on, Doc?

I am wondering if I am rubbish at solving puzzles because I am quite good at handling mysteries.

In contrast to all the Sudoku's my recent plane companions were devouring on monday night (all client side folk - hmm, that adds to the mystery...) I have returned to my game of Medieval Total War 2 and am currently lost in a wonderful mystery that I will summarise as follows...

My Spanish nation has grown from its humble roots in Leon and having crushed the Portugese and Almohads (although not entirely in the case of the latter who may be regrouping in Algiers beyond my Tunisian outpost) I am still in a Phony War with the French, I have some vague alliances with the English and the Germans (who in turn are a bit cross with the French, but i don't know if they are actually fighting them).  The Mongols are invading in massive force in the Far East and the whole of Islam has launched a Jihad on Constantinople, but this is a long way away. At the moment. My Catholic piety is quite high and I have a fair relationship with the Pope but he may take a dim view if i start actually exchanging blows with my fellow Catholics, the French. Mind you the previous Pope (who used to be one of my own Cardinals, as it happens, so he probably owed me a favour) excommunicated the Portugese and occasionally let me have a pop at them.  I am currently "spreading the faith" in North Africa to smooth relations. On the domestic front, budgets are tight, the cities are over-crowded and my now under-employed armies are using up most of my spare cash on wages. Off to the East the Egyptians are reputed to be the the strongest all round country and the more proximal Milanese are allegedly the richest.  My economy seems to not quite pay for itself unless I continually conquer new territories and use the spoils to give my people bread.

This is naturally just a basic outline - If you've got a full hour I'll talk you through the details - but the mystery is : what to do next?

Bliss...

All my favourite computer games - Civilization, Railroad Tycoon - have this quality - the number of variables are so high and so interlocking that there can be no clear cut solution. All you can do is grapple with the mystery and try to make progress. 

That I can do. 

But puzzles I can't.

Which brings me back to the original question - look, if you want polished, cogent pieces go back to Gladwell at the New Yorker, he's a  professional - is the web a puzzle or a mystery?

A lot of my clients are looking for us to use our webmapping tool to bring in some new clues that will enable them so solve the newly arrived puzzle of "web 2.0", (or "blogs" or "UGC" or whatever they are calling it).  Maybe they see it as a Sudoku?  They often seem to want one map that is "it",  like a filled in grid.

I am starting to wonder if the "what should we do about the web (2.0)" is a Mystery  not a Puzzle.  It has many variables (its not just about "blogs", for example) all of whom interact in complex ways to produce deep mysteries (how do on-line and off-line media interact, for example).

Perhaps the real value we provide to clients - perhaps like all planners, in all fields - is to bring insight to the mystery and show a way ahead.

Final question - but maybe not one for you crossword fans - is life a "mystery or a puzzle" (anag. 5,3)?

03/16/2007 | Permalink | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

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